It’s hot outside and is going to make food scarce and expensive. This is the major idea broken down into something very simple. The long story is that current hot weather conditions are endangering our food supplies. They do not survive the summer, so the little that remains needs to be sold at a higher price in order to make some kind of profit and invest into the next year.
But this not just “this year” or “10 to 20 years back” it is almost happening every year and scientists are afraid that this is only the beginning. According to scientific research, extreme weather conditions can occur every seven years out of ten by the end of 2100. And global trade is not going to make things better, it is actually going to make matters much worse.
Let’s take a look at what happened in 2008: extremely bad harvests and low grain stocks, combined with criteria led to the greatest cereal price the world has ever seen since the year 2000. The UN index of prices peaked at 2.8 times higher than at the start of the second millennium.
Not enough evidence? Let’s move in between 2010 and 2011. Russia was struck by a drought that had not been seen for 40 years. The grain harvest was completely destroyed and this made an impact at the other half of the world: in North African countries. The population started protesting when they found out that the price of their bread had risen all of a sudden.
In general, good shocks are most felt in the Middle East and Africa and a number of researches from the UK and US have undergone research as to how countries are affected by ruthless weather conditions.
One such study was conducted by studying the production of soybeans, rice, maize and wheat and they did not give any good news. Right now, there is a one in a 100 chance for a production disruption, but by the end of 2040 this one in 100 chance will turn into a one in 30 years chance. Clearly something we did not expect and that would not benefit us at all.
Starting with 2070, shocks will punish production by a 10% decrease and this could happen every seven out of ten years.
To seal the deal, UN’s Food Agriculture Organization reminds us that Earth’s population is still rising and that they estimate that food demands will go up by around 60% by the end of 2050. So we are going to have more people, but less food. The issue remains a pressing matter without a final resolution. We need to work on one and we need one fast.
Photo Credits telegraph.co.uk